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Monthly Updates

It’s All About Supply And Demand, Not Necessarily Mean Reversion

At any given time, there can be considerable debate among financial strategists, money managers and commentators about whether stocks are cheap or expensive. Most of this is predicated on fundamental analysis, where one is looking at earnings, sales, dividends, cash flow and other fundamental metrics. As you will see below, relative to the past, going […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Graduation 2017, And Beware Of Cycles

Thirty-six years ago this month, I graduated from Cal State Fullerton with a Bachelor’s Degree in Sports Administration. The morning after graduation, I woke up and went back to work in my job as Assistant Director of Public Relations for the California Angels baseball club, where I’d already been employed full time for nearly two […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

With Investing, How LONG Is Long Term?

Back in September 2015, our monthly email update was titled “More Selling Pressure is Likely,” as the stock market was in the midst of a multi-month decline of nearly 14% which culminated in February 2016. In response to that email, one of our clients sent me a concise note, simply saying, “Bob, declines are temporary, […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Nothing Goes Up Forever, But Then Again, Maybe The Horse Will Talk

Much of what we fear is never realized. This is true in life, as well as in markets. We think we know what tomorrow will bring. The reality is, we don’t know, either for better or worse. Tomorrow is but a fog. The story is told of a man who was caught stealing in a […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Supply And Demand Is More Important Than Sentiment Or Valuation, But. . .

In last month’s update just prior to Christmas, we put forth the evidence that market breadth was confirming the new highs in stock prices and that based on history, this portended higher prices in coming months.  Nothing has taken place to change that view, as it continues to be reinforced. Since December 22, the S&P […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

What We Learn From History Is That People Don’t Learn From History

I was not the one who said that, but was astute enough to find it from all of the reading I do, and it was a quote from none other than Warren Buffett.  This is a good time to be reminded, because there is a lot of euphoria built into stock prices since the Trump […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Why We Trust Our Discipline, And Not Our Emotions

I’ve purposely waited to send any communication out on what we’re thinking post-election. I don’t know about your email in-box, but with all the investment management firms we receive feedback from, we’ve been inundated with special webinar invitations and whitepapers on “what the election results mean for your investments.”  Quite candidly, I’ve ignored almost all […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

No, Thank You, I Don’t Think So, I Think I’m Smellin’ a Rat

Those words are part of the chorus of Don Henley’s song “No, Thank You” from his Cass County album which debuted last October.  I think they succinctly sum up this Presidential Election, with Hillary and Donald recording the highest disapproval ratings in history.  Here are two snippets of Henley’s song: These are hard times we’re […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Flatlining

The stock market’s behavior in the last 45 days or so since mid-July reminds me of an electrocardiograph that we’ve all seen in the hospital (or on TV).  Not so much the steady rhythm of a regular heartbeat, but rather that ominous visual of a flatline when the patient expires. I’m not implying the stock […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

BULL-IEVE It or Not?

Our last monthly email was published on Monday, June 27, which in hindsight, turned out to be the conclusion of the two-day selloff in global stock markets associated with the United Kingdom Brexit vote. In those two days, the S&P 500 fell nearly 6%, but has since rebounded nearly 9%, to a new all-time high. […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates