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Monthly Updates

Flatlining

The stock market’s behavior in the last 45 days or so since mid-July reminds me of an electrocardiograph that we’ve all seen in the hospital (or on TV).  Not so much the steady rhythm of a regular heartbeat, but rather that ominous visual of a flatline when the patient expires. I’m not implying the stock […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

BULL-IEVE It or Not?

Our last monthly email was published on Monday, June 27, which in hindsight, turned out to be the conclusion of the two-day selloff in global stock markets associated with the United Kingdom Brexit vote. In those two days, the S&P 500 fell nearly 6%, but has since rebounded nearly 9%, to a new all-time high. […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Be Wary of Predictions—Brexit, or Otherwise

Last weekend, I realized we were about due to publish our monthly update, but little had changed since mid-May. Since there was a lot of focus on the British elections this past Thursday to potentially leave the EU (European Union—thus the name Brexit), I figured why not wait. After Friday, I definitely have more to […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

The “F” Word, and What it Means for Investors

No, I’m not referring to the four-letter slang word that many a golfer utters after hitting their tee shot into the water hazard or the trees. Instead, this is about a term called a “fiduciary,” which may be getting as much attention these days in the investment industry as Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or Bernie […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Addicted to Janet, Plus What Could Go Right

Many years ago, renowned money manager and newsletter writer Marty Zweig coined the phrase, “Don’t Fight the Fed!”  Zweig’s research found that over history, stocks mostly behaved positively when monetary conditions were favorable (lower rates) but typically encountered trouble when policies were unfavorable (rising rates). Lower interest rates do not always help the stock market, […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Offense Sells Tickets, Defense Wins Championships

A few weeks ago, the Carolina Panthers played the Denver Broncos in the 2016 Super Bowl. Carolina entered the game with the top-ranked offense in the league, scoring 500 points, more than any other team.  Meanwhile, the Broncos had the top-ranked defense, based on several categories, and only 3 other teams had allowed fewer points […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Protect Thy Flock, An Ode To Mom

Last Thursday evening, January 14, my mother, Hermina Kargenian, passed away at the age of 91. Since we are involved in your lives, and many of you have experienced the loss of a parent and shared with us, I thought it appropriate to do the same. It is the nature of a Mom to protect […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Starting The New Year On The Defensive

When all was said and done in 2015, the majority of stock indexes were down for the year, and the bond market showed very little in the way of change, with the exception of the high yield bond market, which simply illustrated that there is risk in chasing yield without a plan. What’s Happening Now […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Evidence is Neutral. A Disciplined Process.

On September 29, stocks were near their lows for the year, with the S&P 500 down about 12% from its May peak, and other indexes even more.  In the last five weeks, that decline has been mostly erased, with gains of nearly 12% in large cap stocks.  Other areas have lagged though, which may set […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Know Your Season, And A Reminder on Perspective

Two weeks ago, our calendars passed September 21, the official beginning of Fall (though it doesn’t seem that way with 95 degree days in Southern California).  We also know that on December 21, it will mark the official beginning of Winter.  Seasons have a huge impact on you and me. We know that seasons will […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates