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Monthly Updates

CONCLUSION—More Selling Pressure is Likely

Our last two monthly updates began warning of increasing risks in the stock market, and in the past two weeks, that became a reality, with the S&P 500 dropping over 11% in just six days, before rebounding sharply. Nothing has changed in that outlook. In our view, the major trend is down until proven otherwise […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

The Robot Says “Danger, Danger!”

CONCLUSION—Stocks Are Lost In Space Remember the television show which debuted in 1965 called Lost In Space, featuring Jonathan Harris as Dr. Smith and the Robot? With its master, wandering around whatever planet they were on, whenever the Robot’s computers would sense something was wrong, it would flap its artificial limbs and yell, “Danger, Danger!” […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Market Climate Worsening

CONCLUSION—Market Climate is Worsening During the first quarter of this year, the average equity exposure in our tactical accounts was 70%, reflecting a moderately bullish outlook.  That has changed significantly in the past four weeks, starting with a SELL signal from one of our longer term models below.  Two other intermediate models for the stock […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Update on Market Conditions and Medicare Cost Increase

CONCLUSION—Still Bullish, But Some Divergences Growing Let’s keep it simple.  Several stock indexes, including the S&P 500, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index and the NY Composite, have made new all-time highs in the past few days.  This has been confirmed by various Advance/Decline lines, as shown in the chart below, courtesy of www.stockcharts.com. As noted previously, […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Entering Weak Seasonal Period

Conclusion – Range Bound Until Broken The characteristics we’ve written about the past two months for the U.S. stock market remain in place—a bull market until proven otherwise, with a fairly narrow range, and the NY Advance/Decline Line making another new high as recently as April 15. Trading during the past two months has been […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Monthly Update March 2015

CONCLUSION—The Same as Last Month Not much has changed since our mid-month update in February—a mostly bullish stock market environment, until proven otherwise.  We have been in a trading range since mid-November, with an upward bias.  The S&P 500 dropped -3.54% from February 24 to March 11, but has recovered almost all of that in […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

February 2015 Monthly Update

CONCLUSION—Trading Range, But Mostly Bullish Until Proven Otherwise Most stock indexes were down about -3% in January, and this brought out the chorus of “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year.”  But that calendar anomaly has not worked in recent years, and here we are, two weeks into Febuary, and the losses […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Monthly Update February 2015

CONCLUSION—Trading Range, But Mostly Bullish Until Proven Otherwise Most stock indexes were down about -3% in January, and this brought out the chorus of “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year.”  But that calendar anomaly has not worked in recent years, and here we are, two weeks into Febuary, and the losses […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Monthly Update January 2015

CONCLUSION—Expect More Up and Down Volatility In the 5 trading days ending January 6, the S&P 500 Index dropped nearly -4% and in the process, wiped out the entire gains from the normally favorable seasonal periods in November and December.  In actuality, December was a down month for that index, but other indexes did rise. […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates

Monthly Update December 2014

CONCLUSION—A Classic Topping Process Since our last email update on Halloween six weeks ago, there has been a considerable amount of both up and down volatility in world stock markets.  From the October 15 low for most markets to December 5, the top for most markets, various indexes rallied anywhere from +5% (EEM—Emerging Markts Index) […]

By Bob Kargenian | Monthly Updates