TABR News

If I told you six weeks ago the price of oil would surge over 45% in a few weeks, you’d probably assume this would be bad for the stock market. It was, and then it wasn’t, as the market seems to have sensed the peak in oil was two weeks ago. More on this inside, […]

We don’t put out interim updates unless there’s really something significant going on. There is. Risk in both credit and stock markets has increased to its highest level since last April. We’re not known for brevity, but this will be. Promise. A Change In Character This past Monday, March 16, three of our models triggered […]

This month, we’re revisiting the topic of inflation and updating data we published in 2017, using our favorite breakfast joint as the guinea pig. A current look at REAL, or inflation-adjusted returns. And given the hostilities that have broken out between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, we’d be remiss not to address the implications […]

Nearly 17 years ago on March 9, 2009, the stock market bottomed, concluding a -57% drop which started in October 2007. Since then, the S&P 500 has achieved compound annual returns of about 15.19%, closing positive in 15 of the 17 calendar years since then. As a result, a large swath of investors have been […]

Bob Kargenian’s letter was published on January 16 in Barron’s, a weekly newspaper that covers financial information, relevant statistics, and market developments. In his letter, Bob says, “Jack Hough offered up four theories for the struggles of Constellation Brands, but didn’t mention that the management team has possibly run out of fortunate bounces (‘Are ICE […]

As the new year begins, many people naturally find themselves reflecting—on where they live, how well protected they are, and whether they’re set up properly for what’s ahead. Year-end articles, rankings, and headlines tend to amplify those questions, sometimes in ways that are more unsettling than helpful. In this month’s newsletter, I’d like to share […]

It’s easy to have a higher tolerance for risk when the market does really well, as it has for the past 16 years. In data going back 75 years, stocks as a percentage of household assets are now at record highs. That’s not necessarily good news, if past data is meaningful. We’ll look at some […]

Who needs stocks, bonds and property when you can speculate in crypto, gold and gamble? When will the party end? Probably not for several months, based on our indicators, though gold appears to have already topped. Inside, we’ll look at stock market seasonality, the Social Security COLA and Medicare increases, the Fed Funds cut, and […]

Since the major bottom in early 2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a tear, compounding at nearly 15% for 16 years. If there’s such a thing as “normal,” that’s not it. Yes, stocks and bonds declined in tandem in 2022, resulting in an approximate loss of -12% to -14% for balanced investors, but […]

I’d say I’ve been incredibly lucky. Since 1985, I’ve had two jobs. Prudential Securities from 1985 to early 2004, and founding and running TABR with Steve Medland since 2004. By today’s standards, I might be a dinosaur. I see LinkedIn profiles all the time with three jobs in two years, let alone two jobs in […]