Be Careful Out There

This week’s events bring up fond memories of one of my all-time favorite TV shows from the early 1990s. Remember NYPD Blue, starring Dennis Franz?  Starting in 1993 and ending in 2005, it turned out to be one of the longest running ever one-hour dramas on ABC, lasting 12 seasons.

Almost every episode seemingly started in the squad room, with all of the officers sitting in rows of chairs, listening to that morning’s update from the Captain.  At the end of his musings, the Captain would always remind his troops and say, “And remember—BE CAREFUL OUT THERE.”

Needless to say, that’s good advice right now.  Many of you are going to be startled.  This might be the briefest communication I’ve ever written.  And, no joke at the end.  But, don’t worry, that will come this weekend.  In light of the California Governor’s mandate last night, we just wanted all of you to know that we are in the office, working, reachable on our normal phone lines, and will continue to be next week and beyond, until this is over.

We believe, based on the reliable counsel we have received, that we fall under the “essential critical infrastructure workers” guidelines.  TABR does have a full backup plan ready, with all of us able to work from home IF necessary, with laptops and desktop access, phone forwarding, and cell phones as well.  That’s not our preference, and not how we are proceeding at this time.

I will have a full market update this weekend, with what we’ve done, and importantly, what we see happening from here.  Quickly, though, please know this.  Our equity exposure is 80% in cash.  Our bond exposure is now 70% in cash, and that may increase to 85% on Monday, depending on one of our models.  Yes, our portfolios have taken some body shots these past three weeks.  But, we are still standing.  And, importantly, we are positioned to play another day.  Many traditional portfolios are being KO’d, and are down for the count.  And candidly, it’s likely going to get worse before it gets better.  But, more on that this weekend.

Meanwhile, enjoy your weekend, wherever you may be.  Go get some ice cream tonight.  Watch some great movies or shows on Netflix.  Read.  Eat a great, home-cooked meal (that’s going to be the norm for at least a month.  Going to Raising Cane’s drive-through can only happen so much!).  Drink some wine, or, in my case, DR PEPPER!  And finally, if you’re at wits end and feeling amorous with your spouse or significant other, you can always harken back to the 1973 hit single by Jimmy Buffett, “Let’s Get Drunk And Screw.”

Sincerely,

Bob Kargenian, CMT

TABR Capital Management, LLC (“TABR”) is an SEC registered investment advisor with its principal place of business in the state of California.  TABR and its representatives are in compliance with the current notice filing and registration requirements imposed upon registered investment advisors by those states in which TABR maintains clients.  TABR may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

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The TABR Model Portfolios are allocated in a range of investments according to TABR’s proprietary investment strategies. TABR’s proprietary investment strategies are allocated amongst individual stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and other instruments with a view towards income and/or capital appreciation depending on the specific allocation employed by each Model Portfolio. TABR tracks the performance of each Model Portfolio in an actual account that is charged TABR’s investment management fees in the exact manner as would an actual client account. Therefore the performance shown is net of TABR’s investment management fees, and also reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, if any.

Comparison of the TABR Model Portfolios to the Vanguard Total Stock Index Fund, the Vanguard Total International Stock Fund and the Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund is for illustrative purposes only and the volatility of the indices used for comparison may be materially different from the volatility of the TABR Model Portfolios due to varying degrees of diversification and/or other factors.

Past performance of the TABR Model Portfolios may not be indicative of future results and the performance of a specific individual client account may vary substantially from the composite results above in part because client accounts may be allocated among several portfolios. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable.

The TABR Dividend Strategy presented herein represents back-tested performance results. TABR did not offer the Dividend Strategy as an investment strategy for actual client accounts until September/October 2014. Back-tested performance results are provided solely for informational purposes and are not to be considered investment advice. These figures are hypothetical, prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and have inherent limitations as to their use and relevance. For example, they ignore certain factors such as trade timing, security liquidity, and the fact that economic and market conditions in the future may differ significantly from those in the past. Back-tested performance results reflect prices that are fully adjusted for dividends and other such distributions. The strategy may involve above average portfolio turnover which could negatively impact upon the net after-tax gain experienced by an individual client. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance the strategy will achieve results similar to those depicted herein.

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