Monthly Updates

Nearly 17 years ago on March 9, 2009, the stock market bottomed, concluding a -57% drop which started in October 2007. Since then, the S&P 500 has achieved compound annual returns of about 15.19%, closing positive in 15 of the 17 calendar years since then. As a result, a large swath of investors have been […]

As the new year begins, many people naturally find themselves reflecting—on where they live, how well protected they are, and whether they’re set up properly for what’s ahead. Year-end articles, rankings, and headlines tend to amplify those questions, sometimes in ways that are more unsettling than helpful. In this month’s newsletter, I’d like to share […]

It’s easy to have a higher tolerance for risk when the market does really well, as it has for the past 16 years. In data going back 75 years, stocks as a percentage of household assets are now at record highs. That’s not necessarily good news, if past data is meaningful. We’ll look at some […]

Who needs stocks, bonds and property when you can speculate in crypto, gold and gamble? When will the party end? Probably not for several months, based on our indicators, though gold appears to have already topped. Inside, we’ll look at stock market seasonality, the Social Security COLA and Medicare increases, the Fed Funds cut, and […]

A New York Times article that was published last year, How One Man Lost $740,000 to Scammers Targeting His Retirement, detailed the alarming rise of retirement savings scams, and this trend continues to target unsuspecting Americans. The loss of savings and investments is staggering, as scammers are using increasingly sophisticated techniques to commit these crimes. […]

I cringe when I see a personal finance column with a headline such as “You need $2 million to retire.” Maybe it attracts readers, but it’s a really worthless comment. My floor might be your ceiling, or vice versa. We’re all different, with different sets of resources. This month, we’ll touch on this topic a […]

There has been concern in recent years over the concentration of just a few companies in the S&P 500, notably the top 10, where their price performance and earnings growth have dominated.  This has masked relative weakness in other parts of the market, from midcaps and small stocks to foreign equities.  In this update, we’ll […]

I’m sure many of you have heard of this quote. To me, it’s another way of describing today’s economic situation playing out in the United States and in many cities. How so? We all want more, without the consequences. I’ll explain inside. Plus, we’ll touch on the theory of American exceptionalism as it relates to […]

You may have woken up yesterday morning to a headline similar to one of the first I saw: Trump Tariffs Wipe Out Nearly $2T From Stocks. This morning’s Wall Street Journal page 1 headline was: Stocks Suffer Steepest Slide Since 2020. In today’s newsletter, I’ll put these headlines into context, let you know how we’re […]

Since mid-January, there’s been a significant shift in the tone of stock markets worldwide, with foreign equities surging, and U.S. stocks mostly getting pummeled. Our tactical stock exposure has gone from 86% to 40% in just 7 weeks, yet fixed income is doing quite well (thus far). We’ll have more technical details on this, including […]