Monthly Updates

If I told you six weeks ago the price of oil would surge over 45% in a few weeks, you’d probably assume this would be bad for the stock market. It was, and then it wasn’t, as the market seems to have sensed the peak in oil was two weeks ago. More on this inside, […]

We don’t put out interim updates unless there’s really something significant going on. There is. Risk in both credit and stock markets has increased to its highest level since last April. We’re not known for brevity, but this will be. Promise. A Change In Character This past Monday, March 16, three of our models triggered […]

This month, we’re revisiting the topic of inflation and updating data we published in 2017, using our favorite breakfast joint as the guinea pig. A current look at REAL, or inflation-adjusted returns. And given the hostilities that have broken out between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, we’d be remiss not to address the implications […]

Nearly 17 years ago on March 9, 2009, the stock market bottomed, concluding a -57% drop which started in October 2007. Since then, the S&P 500 has achieved compound annual returns of about 15.19%, closing positive in 15 of the 17 calendar years since then. As a result, a large swath of investors have been […]

As the new year begins, many people naturally find themselves reflecting—on where they live, how well protected they are, and whether they’re set up properly for what’s ahead. Year-end articles, rankings, and headlines tend to amplify those questions, sometimes in ways that are more unsettling than helpful. In this month’s newsletter, I’d like to share […]

It’s easy to have a higher tolerance for risk when the market does really well, as it has for the past 16 years. In data going back 75 years, stocks as a percentage of household assets are now at record highs. That’s not necessarily good news, if past data is meaningful. We’ll look at some […]

Who needs stocks, bonds and property when you can speculate in crypto, gold and gamble? When will the party end? Probably not for several months, based on our indicators, though gold appears to have already topped. Inside, we’ll look at stock market seasonality, the Social Security COLA and Medicare increases, the Fed Funds cut, and […]

A New York Times article that was published last year, How One Man Lost $740,000 to Scammers Targeting His Retirement, detailed the alarming rise of retirement savings scams, and this trend continues to target unsuspecting Americans. The loss of savings and investments is staggering, as scammers are using increasingly sophisticated techniques to commit these crimes. […]

I cringe when I see a personal finance column with a headline such as “You need $2 million to retire.” Maybe it attracts readers, but it’s a really worthless comment. My floor might be your ceiling, or vice versa. We’re all different, with different sets of resources. This month, we’ll touch on this topic a […]

There has been concern in recent years over the concentration of just a few companies in the S&P 500, notably the top 10, where their price performance and earnings growth have dominated.  This has masked relative weakness in other parts of the market, from midcaps and small stocks to foreign equities.  In this update, we’ll […]