Monthly Updates

A few weeks ago, the Carolina Panthers played the Denver Broncos in the 2016 Super Bowl. Carolina entered the game with the top-ranked offense in the league, scoring 500 points, more than any other team.  Meanwhile, the Broncos had the top-ranked defense, based on several categories, and only 3 other teams had allowed fewer points […]

Last Thursday evening, January 14, my mother, Hermina Kargenian, passed away at the age of 91. Since we are involved in your lives, and many of you have experienced the loss of a parent and shared with us, I thought it appropriate to do the same. It is the nature of a Mom to protect […]

When all was said and done in 2015, the majority of stock indexes were down for the year, and the bond market showed very little in the way of change, with the exception of the high yield bond market, which simply illustrated that there is risk in chasing yield without a plan. What’s Happening Now […]

I’m about three weeks behind my intended publishing of this quarterly newsletter. Part of that delay was related to our main topic, as we’ve moved the core equity exposure in portfolios from actively managed equity funds to index-based ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Before I delve into that, and all the context that goes with it, we’re […]

On September 29, stocks were near their lows for the year, with the S&P 500 down about 12% from its May peak, and other indexes even more.  In the last five weeks, that decline has been mostly erased, with gains of nearly 12% in large cap stocks.  Other areas have lagged though, which may set […]

In this past week’s budget legislation in Washington, Congress has decided to close what are perceived “loopholes” in the Social Security rules. The bottom line is, should this legislation be approved by the Senate, Congress will have killed off the various “File and Suspend” strategies to allow spousal and dependent benefits to be paid while […]

Two weeks ago, our calendars passed September 21, the official beginning of Fall (though it doesn’t seem that way with 95 degree days in Southern California).  We also know that on December 21, it will mark the official beginning of Winter.  Seasons have a huge impact on you and me. We know that seasons will […]

Last quarter, I promised an expansive look at the use of cash (or hedging) in client portfolios. So, that is forthcoming below, along with the latest look at inflation, and the difference between what I will call “tax return vs total return” on your Fidelity statements. Plus, the usual update on the progress of the […]

Our last two monthly updates began warning of increasing risks in the stock market, and in the past two weeks, that became a reality, with the S&P 500 dropping over 11% in just six days, before rebounding sharply. Nothing has changed in that outlook. In our view, the major trend is down until proven otherwise […]

CONCLUSION—Stocks Are Lost In Space Remember the television show which debuted in 1965 called Lost In Space, featuring Jonathan Harris as Dr. Smith and the Robot? With its master, wandering around whatever planet they were on, whenever the Robot’s computers would sense something was wrong, it would flap its artificial limbs and yell, “Danger, Danger!” […]