TABR News
Falling Yields Are Not Likely Bullish, And Our Biggest Mistake
The President’s tweets on tariff negotiations with China along with Federal Reserve interest rate policy have been dominating financial market behavior in recent weeks. Since cutting the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% on July 31, yields on government bonds have fallen by 50 basis points in just over two weeks, which is a massive move […]
What The Heck Is Per Stirpes, Market Cycles, And Why The Tape Is More Important Than The Fed
From time to time, we try to touch on planning topics that are not as well known to many clients, yet can be quite helpful in individual cases. For instance, a few years ago we wrote about the little known tactic called a loan recast. Virtually every homeowner has heard of refinancing their mortgage loan. […]
Should You Really Be Worried About A Credit Bubble, OMG She’s In High School, Drawdowns And More
I am a voracious reader. I love newspapers (yes, real ones, not the digital versions), magazines, books and various publications, from stock market research to The Athletic, a godsend for sports fans nationwide where you can keep up daily with all of your favorite teams with the best sports writers in the nation, all for […]
What’s Your Bias? New Highs In Stocks, Or 7 Months (Or More) Of Going Nowhere
Isn’t it interesting, when news headlines get your attention, and shape your thinking? In this month’s update, both items in our headline are true. Last week, both the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index made new all-time highs, surpassing their September peaks. On the other hand, mid-cap stocks, small stocks and foreign equities are […]
Don’t Confuse Me With The Facts, Crypto Hell, A Lesson From KISS, and More
Sometimes what we don’t know about money isn’t the problem—it’s what we do know for sure that just isn’t true. I was reminded of this when recently reading media coverage of one of the most stressful times of the year for many—tax filing season. The narrative that you keep reading about is that millions of […]
The Conundrum Of Drawing Funds Down In Retirement, And Much More
For many people, the transition from working and saving, to “retirement” and spending, can be a difficult adjustment. Mentally, the vision of a diminishing balance sheet can wreak havoc with one’s thought processes. No one wants to run out of money. Yet, the variables are many, and quite often, uncertain. How long will you live? […]
Bob Kargenian Quoted in Barron’s
Bob Kargenian was quoted in a Letter to the Editor in Barron’s, a weekly newspaper that covers financial information, relevant statistics, and market developments. Bob Kargenian said, “I would be wary about drawing black-and-white conclusions from Nicholas Colas’ comment that mean reversion should start to kick in merely because the past 20 years for stocks […]
A Bottom, But Not THE Bottom, And What To Expect From Here
Given the almost unprecedented decline this month in equity markets, I thought it would be timely to talk about the technical condition of the stock market—what has transpired, and what we are likely to see as we enter the new year. So, here goes. From the December 3 close of 2790 to the December 24 […]
A View From The Top, Don’t Assume Rates Are Headed Higher, And Joe Maddon
It’s very timely to be discussing the big picture outlook for stocks and bonds, given the weakness in equities since the late September peak. The weekly and monthly trends are in a very different place than where they were in January. We’ll be illustrating that and more with relevant charts, and what likely is ahead […]
Bob Kargenian Quoted in InvestmentNews
Bob Kargenian was quoted in a Letter to the Editor in InvestmentNews, a leading source for news, analysis and information essential to the financial advisory community. In his editorial, entitled “Complicated products mar profession,” Bob Kargenian said, “I read with interest the guest blog by Mark Fitzgerald on fixed-index annuities [in the Nov. 12 issue]. […]