Monthly Updates

In the summer of 2020, I started to use song titles for monthly headlines, to write about different topics. That month, it was Wasted Time, by the Eagles. We delved into the topic of how long it typically takes for markets to recover from losses. That’s relevant now, and the answer to what has been […]

There’s been considerable damage to the stock market in the past several weeks (and the bond market as well). I didn’t want to wait until our full monthly update to communicate, as stocks broke support this past week and could be at a major tipping point. I’m not known for being brief, but this will […]

In this month’s newsletter, I’ll recount a true story about my neighbor who got a terrible surprise on his property tax bill, although I’ve changed some of the details to protect privacy. Two months ago, he got a notice from the Orange County Assessor’s Office saying that his property tax bill had increased by $14,000 […]

I just want to live off my dividends. I’ve heard that comment, or something similar, from a number of clients over the years. Or, from real estate investors—it’s all about cash flow. There are flaws in both of these dictums, and we’ll tackle this topic this month in depth. This was prompted from an email […]

If investors have not yet learned to ignore Wall Street’s forecasts, the first 7 months of 2023 are a good lesson to heed. Almost universally bearish and expecting a recession that currently is nowhere in sight, the S&P 500 has gained over 18% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, also known as the QQQ, has […]

Back in 1982, the late Prince released a song titled 1999, that purportedly was using the phrase in reference to a nuclear apocalypse predicted to occur in the year 2000. That didn’t happen, but the stock market did mark an epic peak in March 2000, with the Nasdaq Composite plunging over -80% during the ensuing […]

With the First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank failures in the last two months, you may understandably be concerned about the safety of your money, including your bank accounts and Fidelity investment accounts. To start, a little background may help. Fidelity Investments is one of the world’s largest and most well-respected investment […]

There are a lot of truths and lies in our industry. And often, it can be hard to discern facts from bullshit. One of the narratives echoed by several clients over my 40 years in finance has usually been stated in describing a situation where an individual stock that one owns is underwater, sometimes by […]

That disclaimer is present in some form in virtually every financial document I can think of, ranging from mutual fund prospectuses to life insurance and annuity contracts and illustrations, to the voluminous disclosure documents and annual reports of private and public real estate partnerships and private equity deals. It’s become so common, that I think […]

What a difference a year makes. A year ago at this time, all of our stock and bond market risk models had turned negative, we were in maximum protect mode, and that foreshadowed the worst calendar year for investors since 2008. Today, all but one of our stock market risk models is positive, and we’re […]