Monthly Updates

A couple of months ago, one of our clients called me to ask about moving from California to Pennsylvania to accept a job promotion. We discussed several aspects of the move, including differences in the cost of living, housing prices, distance from friends and family, climate, local culture, and, very importantly, taxes. The tax question […]

Several months ago, the yields on shorter term debt instruments began to rise above the yields of longer term debt of the same credit profile. This is unusual, as the chart below will illustrate. This is known as an inverted yield curve, and is typically associated with recessions. Why does that matter? Because bear markets […]

From the year 2000 to 2020, inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) averaged well under 3%. And about 3% inflation has been pretty much the average since 1950. Nothing is forever, though, thanks to the seemingly unlimited printing press known as The Federal Reserve. As a result, inflation […]

Stocks staged a fairly impressive rally off of their mid-June lows, with the S&P 500 gaining over 17% in two months, and the NDX 100 (aka the QQQ) up nearly 23%. This had given hope from the bulls that the worst was over, and perhaps inflation was peaking. But in mid-August, virtually all major indexes […]

On the morning of January 12, 2022, I took a quick look at my checking account balance, as I do most days. Instead of seeing around $9,000 or $10,000 as I had expected, the balance staring back at me was $109.97. Huh?! There had to be some mistake. I looked at recent transactions and saw […]

This month’s headline is shameless plagiarism. When you read as much as I do, you get ideas from everywhere. In this case, it was a Fund Profile article in Barron’s on Rupal Bhansali, the portfolio manager for the Ariel International fund a couple of weeks ago. Bhansali successfully plays defense by first asking, before making […]

A little over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level of the year, at 3900, down over -18% from year-end. Other indexes, such as the S&P 600 (small caps), S&P 400 (mid caps), and the EFA (international), made higher lows that day, and the number of stocks making new lows diminished, […]

The saying goes “April showers bring May flowers.” It supposedly is a reminder that in the case of heavy rains in April (not in Southern California!), it can bring about pleasant things, in this case, beautiful flowers.  That would be a blessing to stock and bond investors, who may be feeling like they just went […]

As Bob Kargenian mentioned in last month’s newsletter, I will write the TABR Capital Management newsletter about every four months going forward. In this month’s newsletter, I’m thrilled to introduce my new book, Spiraling Up: Discover Financial Serenity, Make Work Optional, and Live Happily in Retirement, which is being launched today. The best way to […]

Technical Analysis can be an inexact science. Charts, patterns, formations, indicators. And candidly, a lot of subjectivity. We’ve been using a quantitative approach to markets since the mid-1980s, where we take technical indicators and use them with sets of rules. This provides more discipline, and less emotion. One of the simplest things that investors can […]